Preseason Analysis: Big Ben

Take a look at Eli Manning the last two years. He was merely an average quarterback in 2008, yet he won the Super Bowl in dramatic fashion. As a result, his draft stock skyrocketed, and he was regarded as an elite quarterback. People were actually debating which Manning brother was the better player. But despite his playoff success, he returned as an average quarterback in 2009. Expect the same thing from Ben Roethlisberger. Too many fantasy owners look too much into playoff success and let it affect the draft. Yes, Ben Roethlisberger has had one tremendous year. In 2007, he threw 32 TDs with a 104.1 QB rating, both career highs. But to counter his success, he has thrown only 17 TDs three times and 18 TDs once. And on top of his failure to score TDs, he has averaged 14 INTs per year over the last five seasons. He has never even threatened to reach 4,000 passing yards in a single season. Listen, we aren’t trying to say that he is a poor QB. Big Ben is the perfect fit for the Steelers because he can post decent numbers while taking a beating in the backfield. But his Super Bowl victory gives him much more attention than he deserves in the fantasy world. His injuries will continue to be a serious risk in drafting Roethlisberger. He played injured most of last season, and has missed several games throughout his career. The Big Ben we expect to see in 2009 will probably be a slight improvement from his 17 TD, 15 INT campaign in 2008. He barely ranks within the top-15 QBs this year, so he can be used as a solid bye-week filler. Be careful if you are in a league that takes points away for interceptions!

AFC QB Report

Trent Edwards - Buffalo Bills He continues to be on the edge of being a fantasy starting QB, but needs to throw a few more passes and another 1/2 TD in each game to do so. The more the Bills win, the more confidence will be put in him and the more likely we are to see his stats increase. Through 4 games he has thrown for 930 yards, 4 TD's and 2 Int's. That projects to 3,720 yards 16 TD's and 8 Int's. Almost there.... Matt Cassell - New England Patriots The jury on Cassell thus far is, he is guilty of being not good. He is not worth keeping unless you are in a QB thin league. With that said, the is a glimmer of hope he can mature and improve his game with the tools and system New England has, but it is just a glimmer. 448 yards, 2 TD's and 1 Int. Trent Edwards is a much fantasy QB. Chad Pennington - Miami Dolphins His stats aren't that bad (589 yards 2 TD's & 1 Int.), but the question is his potential to improve. There is some, but the Dolphins will focus and a running the ball and that will keep his potential to be a fantasy starter very, very low. Ben Roethlisberger - Pittsburgh Steelers He was projected to be a fantasy stud, but with a team full of injuries, he has become a dud. The question with Big Ben is whether to trade him or keep him. Th advice is to keep him at this point because one, his value is very low and two, the Steelers should heal up and improve and you may want Big Ben for your playoff stretch. The only exceptions are if you are given reasonably close to his draft value or if you have 1 or 2 better QB's. As always this means acquiring Roethlisberger in a cheap trade is a worthwhile gamble. Sin City Scout