Top Sleeper Pick: Kevin Smith

2008 was a unique season where late-round rookies (Forte, Slaton) emerged as elite running backs, whereas the top ranked rookies (McFadden) faltered.

For their efforts, four sophomore running backs are within the top-15 among their position: Matt Forte (2nd), Chris Johnson (6th), Steve Slaton (8th), Kevin Smith (15th).

But despite his low ranking, Kevin Smith has the most potential to exceed his expectations and be a top-ten running back.

Of those four, Kevin Smith was the only player to fall short of 1,000 yards rushing in '08. However, in the last eight games of the season, Smith was close in production to all of them.

Over the last eight games, Smith rushed for 671 yards and 4 TD's (Forte for 597 yds, 6 TD's; Johnson for 679 yds, 6 TD's).

Smith was limited in the season's first eight games as he battled several players for the starting position before finally locking it down in week 9.

Unlike the other three, Smith is not an elite receiver for a running back, with only 39 receptions for 286 yards.

But Smith played on the league's worst team last season, and still managed to post a very good rookie year.

With the departure of Rudi Johnson, Kevin Smith's lone competition for the job is Maurice Morris. Smith should easily secure his starting position, and if healthy, should have no problem rushing the ball more than 300 times in '09.

Granted, the Lions ranked 30th in rushing last season (just ahead of the Colts and Cardinals), but Smith has a good opportunity to not only eclipse 1,000 yards rushing, but to also exceed 1,500 yards.

His 4.1 yards per carry should increase moderately - a result of a strengthend offensive line. This offseason, the Lions added ex-Redskins center Jon Jansen, who was the cornerstone of Washington's rushing protection.

First-round draft pick Brandon Pettigrew will be utilized as a blocking tight end, giving Kevin Smith an opening to the outside lane.

Unfortunately for Smith, he is the best offensive weapon on their team, and might see extra attention on defense because of it.

But the Lions did add Bryant Johnson to compliment Calvin 'Megatron' Johnson in the receiving core. And it looks like Daunte Culpepper will end up being the week 1 starter as Stafford is left to watch and mature. The Lions deeper set of receivers won't be enough to make them a legitimate threat, but they will be enough to keep some defensive attention of Smith.

Kevin Smith guaranteed the Lions would make the playoffs earlier this offseason on his blog, and fell victim to criticism and laughter. We're not quite ready to jump on Smith's promise quite yet, but he might guarantee a spot in your fantasy playoffs.

He can be acquired in the fourth round, and could get you first round productivity. Even if he doesn't maximize his potential in 2009, he still has a huge chance of being a top-ten RB.

Preseason Analysis: Kevin Smith

Kevin Smith played on the worst team in the history of the NFL, and nearly reached 1000 yards last season. He battled for playing time the first semester of the season, but eventually emerged as the starter, receiving double-digit carries in 10 of the final 11 games – averaging a respectable 4.1 YPC along the way.

Even with the addition of Maurice Morris, and the starting-QB drama to ensue in Detroit, Kevin Smith will get plenty of playing time, as new head coach Jim Schwartz is a strong proponent of the run. And new additions in Matt Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew will help charge the offense.

Although we don’t support Smith's Twitter promise that: “We will definitely make the playoffs this season.”, we'll admith his team has improved in virtually every way imaginable.

Nonetheless, Smith is a surefire candidate for a 10 TD, 1000-yard campaign. And after a one dimensional rookie season, Schwartz will try to incorporate Kevin Smith into the passing game, regardless of who is under center.

This is one running back we don’t expect to have a sophomore slump. In fact, we consider Kevin Smith to be one of the top sleeper picks in the entire fantasy draft this year.

Draft him as a #2 RB, but remember, he is stocked with explosive potential.