The Saints RB Situation: Week 3

Wow! This is my third column this year about someone named Pierre. My second in two weeks. Either I'm embracing my French culture more or more guys named Pierre are becoming solid athletes. Probably both.

Ok, let's get to the stuff you care about. And yes, I mean you, the one person who reads my column.

Before the season began Pierre Thomas was on everyones radar, and why wouldn't he be? This is a guy who was responsible for tremendous output in the final 7 weeks of last season, out of no where. This is also a guy who was slated to get the bulk of the carries for an offense that is among the most explosive in the league.

Then came the MCL sprain. All of the sudden, Thomas owners went from being excited about the potential value of their pick to that terrible position fantasy owners dread. That awful spot when a guy goes down with a week to week injury. Now you're constantly searching for updates on his injury status. Is he going to play? Is he going to get touches if he does? Is it bad that my week depends entirely on the previous weekends fantasy results? Ok, maybe that's just me.

In his absence, Mike Bell has done an outstanding job (see my preseason column about Mike Bell... you're welcome) and it started to look like Thomas would take a back seat. However, the tables have turned. Now it's Bell who is down with an MCL sprain.

Thomas returned to action last week, which tells me he's ready to go. Granted he was not effective in his one touch, but let's be serious, it was one touch.

Bell on the other hand has not participated in practice this week and if he doesn't participate again on Friday, I would not expect to see him on the field against Buffalo. That should allow Thomas to slip back in as the premier rusher for the Saints, with Reggie Bush continuing to get his usual action.

There's one more thing to consider though; Is Thomas startable against a Buffalo defense that's only allowed 65 yards per game on the ground? Let's break this down, shall we?

We already know Buffalo has been effective so far stopping the run against the Patriots and Buccaneers. Neither of those are marquee rushing attacks. Also, while they've allowed only 65 yards per game on the ground, in each games they've allowed 9 receptions to running backs for an excess of 60 yards per game. To top that off, the Bills lost their Middle Linebacker Paul Posluszny in the opening game and are using a backup in his place.

Another thing to consider here is the motivation to run the ball. I expect the Saints will outmatch the Bills and get up early, allowing them to lean a bit harder on the running game. On top of that they are expecting rain in Buffalo on Sunday, which could force the Saints to commit to the ground game more than usual.

Because of those factors, I am starting Pierre Thomas this Sunday as a RB3/Flex. To give you an idea of what range of players to consider him in; my RB1 and RB2 are D'Angelo Williams and Ryan Grant. I would not start Thomas over either of those players, but I am starting him ahead of Jamal Lewis and Julius Jones.

Let's just hope I'm right about Pierre. The rest of my week depends on it.

PCB Scout

Questions? Comments? Random nonsense? Email me: pcbscout(at)gmail.com

Lynch Suspension Upheld

Bills running back Marshawn Lynch was served a three game suspension this March for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy.

Like most star players, Lynch appealed the suspension, hoping to get his sentenced reduced to just one game. However, the NFL announced on Monday that they were upholding Lynch's suspension, making him ineligible for play until week 4 against the Miami Dolphins.

How much does a three game absence hurt Lynch's value?

Last season, Lynch was a borderline first round draft pick. This year - he is getting taken towards the end of the third round.

But, Marshawn Lynch might as well be worth a late second round pick this year because you know what he is going to give you; take a look.

Marshawn Lynch thrives as a running back in Buffalo. Once the weather takes a turn for the worse, Lynch improves significantly.

In September and October of last season, Lynch only managed 3.66 yards per carry. In November and December, he had 4.61 yards per carry.

But despite the fact that Lynch is a great second-half player, he is still missing a quarter of the regular fantasy season.

However, Fred Jackson, who has averages 4.6 yards per carry in his short career, will serve as Lynch's undisputed replacement for the first three games. Dominic Rhodes is supposed to help out; but expect Jackson to make Rhodes a non-factor. In week 17, Fred Jackson ran for 136 yards against the New England Patriots; he could even fight for Lynch's job when he returns.

Once Lynch returns, he will return to the starting line up and once again be a dominant fantasy force. In two seasons, he has ran for at least 1,000 yards and scored at least 7 times. While those numbers aren't likely to be replicated, we still rank him higher than his average draft position.

Fred Jackson can be acquired in the final rounds of the draft where you might be getting your back-up defense, or your first string kicker. Spend a late pick on Jackson, and you have a player who will serve as a starting running back for the first three weeks of the season.

And come week 4, that late fourth round pick you spent on Marshawn Lynch suddenly turned into a high end No. 2 running back for the remainder of the year.

In games against the Patriots, Buccaneers and Saints, the Bills will need extra input from Lee Evans and Terrell Owens in the passing game, increasing their respective values.

Even if you don't secure Lynch, Jackson is a good running back to secure until more guys open up on waivers.

Dunn Tops Century Mark

Tampa Bay Buccaneers backup running back, Warrick Dunn, rushed 22 times for 115 yards and added 3 catches for 18 yards. He got most of the carries over starter Earnest Graham and, in fact, Dunn has looked better all season. This is bad news for Graham owners, though he is still the goalline back. Dunn on the other hand, is still available in some leagues and is worth a look. Sin City Scout

Addai suffers hamstring injury

Indianapolis Colts running back Joseph Addai left Sunday’s game against the Baltimore Ravens in the first quarter with a hamstring injury. Dominic Rhodes took over and rush 25 times for 73 yards and 1 TD. He may be worth picking up right away until we hear more about Addai. Sin City Scout

NFC RB Report

Steven Jackson - Rams Jackson had his best game of the season against the Bills good defense running for 110 yards and 1 TD and had 5 catches for 78 yards. He is looking 100% now and he should continue to produce at his normal level, minus a few TD's and the entire Ram offense should improve a little. It is doubtful to get a discount trade at this point, but it is worth a try. Kevin Smith - Lions He was cut in some leagues after word came out that he lost his starting job, then he started and scored a TD. He still hasn't been anything special, but there is upside with him. He is young and the Lions can't get worse...Can they? Pick him up if he has been cut or make an offer if you need a RB and can get him for a very cheap price.

AFC RB Report

Mewelde Moore - Pittsburgh Steelers He should get the bulk of the carries on Sunday night @ Jacksonville with the injuries to Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall. He carried the ball 9 times for 19 yards and caught 3 passes for 37 yards in the Steelers 20-17 win against the Ravens. Moore is a solid receiver out of the backfield and could be a decent pick up if he were going to play for a while, but with Parker expected back in a week or two coupled with the Steelers going to Jacksonville makes Moore a worthwhile pickup for the desperate only. As always, if you have droppable baggage, you are desperate enough . He could get a solid amount of receptions, especially with the way the Steelers' pass blocking. Fred Jackson - Buffalo Bills He is turning into a pretty solid pickup for an emergency back. He has rushed the ball 28 times for 119 yards and 1 TD in four games and added 11 catches for 93 yards. That projects to almost 500 yards 4 TD's and 44 catches for almost 400 yards. You get a nice emergency fill-in running back, plus Marshawn Lynch's back-up who if he every took over could be fantasy gold. He has been taken in many leagues, but not in all, but Jackson can likely be easily traded for. Laurence Maroney - New England Patriots He has been a major bust in '08, so the question is, do you cut him, trade him or hold onto him? The answer of course depends on who you can get for him, but trading him is going to be very hard so the best advice is to sit him on the bench for another week or two. The Patriots have to run the ball if they are going to have any success and if Maroney is healthy he should get a chance to be a solid fantasy back. The hope to cling to is his strong 2007 finish. He is a good back when healthy and when given a chance. On the other hand he is likely easy-pick'ens and if you need a running back, try throwing a decent extra receiver or quarterback at them and see what happens. Le'Ron McClain - Baltimore Ravens He looked like the feature back in Baltimore with McGahee's rib injury. Rookie Ray Rice has been a fantasy bust and while he is worth a desperate pickup, McClain is the man or at least the co-man and likely goal line back. He makes a solid pickup especially with the byes here. Cedric Benson - Cincinnati Bengals Ya right. Cut by the Bears and out of football and now he is third-string for the Bengals. Let someone else be the dummy who picks him up. Probably a Ricky Williams owner. Ryan Torain - Denver Broncos It is about time to add Torain to you roster if someone hasn't already. Neither Selvin Young nor Andre Hall has wowed anyone, not even as a combo. The Broncos didn't keep him on the roster all this time for nothing, they like him. His elbow injury has allowed him to stay in shape, so you just may get a starting running back for the second half of the season.

Mendenhall To Start For Steelers

Rookie Rashard Mendenhall will make his first NFL start Monday night against Baltimore. Willie Parker is out with a sprained left knee. The Steelers #1 pick has been up and down in the preseason, but he should be good for 80 yards and a possible TD. Sin City Scout

RB Report: Week Three

Ronnie Brown vs. Ricky Williams The awaited breakout of Ronnie Brown happened on Sunday when he rushed 17 times for 113 yards and 4 TD's and threw another TD. He only caught 1 pass for 9 yards and catching passes is is real strength. Though Ricky Williams owners were forewarned, Williams is still the backup and he himself rushed for 98 yards on 16 carries. If you can keep him a little longer, do so. Winner: Ronnie Brown Steve Slaton vs. Ahman Green With old-a$$ Ahman Green still safely resting-up, rookie Steve Slaton rushed for 116 yards on 18 carries and scored 1 TD. In addition, he had 4 catches for 8 yards , all against a dominating Tennessee run defense. Winner: Steve Slaton Jonathan Stewart vs. DeAngelo Williams The Panthers faced the top-notch Viking defense in Minnesota and Stewart manged just 15 yards on 7 carries, though he did manage the lone Carolina TD, which points out once again who will get the most goal line looks. DeAngelo Williams didn't fair any better gaining just 27 yards on 10 carries and 2 catches for 17 yards. Winner: Jonathan Stewart by a hair. Darren McFadden vs. Micheal Bush Neither back did much against the tough Buffalo defense. Bush gained 55 yards on 14 carries and caught 1 pass for 5 yards while McFadden ran 14 times for 42 yards and caught 3 passes for 6 yards. Push

Westbrook Sprains Ankle

Eagles start running back, Brian Westbrook, went down with a sprained ankle. The extent of the injury is unknown. Correll Buckhalter took over and scored a TD. Tony Hunt will also see some time. Westbrook owners must pick up Buckalter if he is available, otherwise they may want to look at Rudi Johnson of the Lions. Sin City Scout

Rudi Taking Over In Detroit?

Cast off running back back, Rudi Johnson took over for Kevin Smith and rushed for 83 yards on 14 carries and caught 3 passes for 48 yards and 1 TD. He did have 1 fumble. The Lions have not been satisfied with the play of Smith, who only rushed for 19 yards and he too fumbled, and Johnson has taken advantage of his opportunity. Sin City Scout

McFadden Breaks Out

Oakland rookie running back and top running back taken, Darren McFadden, rushed for 164 yards and a TD after Justin Fargas went down to an injury (surprise, surprise). We knew it was a matter of time for either Fargas to go down or for McFadden to breakout, well both happened in just week two. If you have Fargas, dump him, it was a bad move in the first place. Bush is a better option. By the way, Michael Bush rushed for another 91 yards and a TD on 16 carries. He should continue to get goal line carries and more playing time with Fargas down. Sin City Scout

Stewart Takes First Step in Being #1

Jonathan Stewart has way too much talent to play behind DeAngelo Williams and took his first step it getting the job by running 14 times for 77 yards and 2 TD's. Williams rushed 11 times for just 31 yards. He is a must have for keeper leagues, but it is likely too late to acquire him cheaply, but it is worth a try. By the way, it was Stewart at the end of the game when it counted and they weren't just good stats, he looked good running. Sin City Scout

Sproles Gives Chargers a Spark

San Diego's 5-6 backup running back Darren Sproles is giving the Chargers what the expected from LT, the spark plug to start the offense. Sproles has looked sharp rushing for 53 yards on just 7 carries and caught 2 passes for 72 yards and a TD compared to LT's 26 yards. In addition he had a 103 yard kick off return. If you own LT, you may want to pick Sproles up for the old handcuff. Sin City Scout