Rookie QB Analysis

Matthew Stafford. Given that the Lions just pitched Georgia QB Matthew Stafford a six year contract worth $41.7 million in guarantees, it is probably safe to assume that he will be the starter come Week 1. Stafford has been ready for the NFL stage since Mel Kiper Jr. predicted that he would be the #1 overall pick in a draft three years ago! Detroit has traded Jon Kitna, and Dan Orvlosky, the guy most well-known for running for a safety, signed with Houston. With little competition (Drew Stanton) for the starting role, we expect Stafford to have a rookie year comparative to, or better than Matt Ryan’s 2008 season.

Mark Sanchez. The New York Jets didn’t give up three players and two draft picks for them not to utilize the fifth overall pick in the draft, Mark Sanchez. Similar to Stafford’s situation in Detroit, Sanchez has no competition in New York, as Kellen Clemens, with a whopping 59.3 career passer rating, is atop the Jets’ QB depth chart. Sanchez has the most upside of all of the rookie QB’s, given a deep set of WR’s to work with, and an already established running game, Sanchez will not only be the Week 1 starter, but our front-runner for Rookie of the Year. Realistically, the USC graduate remains a high-end number two QB, at least for now.

Josh Freeman. In 2008 for the Kansas State nearly scored as many touchdowns on the ground as he did in the air. Hopefully, Freeman will focus on his throwing power and accuracy rather than his mobility. As fun as they are, scrambling QB’s rarely lead successful teams or post good stats. While he too will probably earn the starting role for Tampa, we project him to be no more than a bye-week filler.