Projections Archive

When conducting your Fantasy Football Draft the best overall advice is to play it safe early. Don’t try to out smart yourself. Get your running back early, but then draft a balance of running and passing throughout the draft and save your gambles for mid and late rounds. When you do gamble, focus on running backs.

1. Check your Leagues Point System before the draft and occasionally during the season. Obvious, but often ignored. Notice during the season which categories seem to be manufacturing a lot of points. If you see a point strength in the some category make moves for players who excel at that category. You will be surprised how you can stop a weakness on your team and turn it into a strength in the league. Some leagues, like Yahoo Fantasy Football, have a STANDINGS scoring summary. Use this to analyze strengths and weakness of categories during the season.

2. Running Backs: Draft a “sure thing” veteran running back in the first-round, always. Strongly consider another with your second-pick, but don't be forced to take one whose value is much lower. The bottom line is you need to know that every week you will get consistent, top-scoring from one your running backs. Make sure you look at the running backs ability to score in the red zone and his ability to catch the ball. Those two factors are what separate to good fantasy backs from the average backs.
Make sure to grab some extra running backs in the late-rounds. Extra running backs are more important than any other position because of the lack of change that happens at the position.
Take a gamble on a running back. A rookie or a back up of a top running team is a good gamble. Here are some rookie running backs worth looking at in 2011.

3. Quarterback: They will generally score the most points in Fantasy Leagues. But with most leagues having only one starting slot, even in a 14-team-league, you can get good starting QB's in the late-rounds. Naturally if you are playing in a more competitive 2 quarterback league the position is much more valuable. Here are the levels:

A) The Franchise QB: This year there is a fuzzy line in between The Franchise quarterback and the stud. Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers qualify in 2011, It is probably not worthwhile to take one of these ahead of the best running backs, but in the end of the first round is worth getting the only elite, franchise quarterback.

B) Fantasy Stud: These are sure-things and have potential to be a Franchise QB in any given season. Tony Romo, Phillip Rivers and Matt Schaub fall into this category in 2011. Brett Favre might as well if he returns in 2011. Each of these quarterbacks have stats that can compete or possibly top the franchise quarterbacks, so it may be wise to get one of these cheaper quarterbacks.
Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco have the potential to move into this group and could be drafted much lower.

C) Fantasy Starter: This is the most common QB and can be drafted in the mid-late rounds and even found in free agency in most leagues. Eli Manning, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco are at the top. Jay Culter is near the top as well and depending on he rebounds in 2011, he could easily be rise to a fantasy stud.

D) Fantasy Hopefuls: These are either inconsistent veterans or young QB's. Kevin Kolb Mark Sanchez and Vince Young fit these bills. Matt Leinart is a long shot, but has a chance to take a step up in 2011. Any of these can go higher than the solid veteran starter and make good gambles at the right time.

You should put all QB's into these categories to help your draft. The point here is if you don't draft a "Franchise QB" you are better to wait unit the mid-rounds to get a "Starter" quality QB. Either start the run on this type of QB's if the time is right or grab yours during the run.

4. Wide Receivers: The first bit of advice on WR's is to go back to the general draft advice, know your point system. Some leagues give points for receptions. If your league does, this gives possession-type receivers more value. It changes everything.
After that is established, just like at running backs, you need to get at least one sure-thing WR. He needs to get the consistent 6-7 catches, 100 yards and a TD.
Don't under estimate the value WR's, but don't over-estimate them either. There are around 60 wide receivers to choose from, RB, TE and QB have half of that. After you have a stud, it is almost as likely to find a second or a third in free agency during the season as it is to find one in the draft. This is not to say don't draft more than one, it is to say be aware of it.
Every year a rookie receiver or two will have big years, though it is a difficult position for rookies to learn, so it is risky to draft them. Here are some rookie wide receivers worth looking at in 2011.

5. Tight Ends: Usually getting a top tight end is a good strategy because of the low amount of worthwhile fantasy tight ends. In 2011 it is simply not the case. Wait on tight ends in this years draft. Worse case you pluck a Zach Miller, Heath Miller or John Carlson late and you'll be in very good shape.

6. Kickers: Drafted a kicker early is simply stupid! Wait until the first one is drafted before you even think about it unless it is so late in the draft that you can't pass him up.
Generally a better offense means more points from a kicker, but not always. A shaky offense can produce many field goal opportunities while a great one will score more touchdowns. A big-play passing offense will generally kick less field goals. In the end draft the most consistent kicker who can nail a high percentage of 40 yard plus field goals. This is where the fantasy points come form.

7. Defenses: Drafted a defense early is simply stupid! Wait until the first one is drafted before you even think about it unless it is so late in the draft that you can't pass them up.
Sound familiar? Defenses are very difficult to predict, especially when you are talking about fantasy numbers such as as sacks, interceptions, fumbles and touchdowns.
Don't be afraid to take one a notch higher than expected, but be careful how high. The best bet is target a good one, but not the number one ranked.

8. Save gambles for middle and late-rounds. Plenty of places for gambles, just not too early.

9. Go into the draft with a small draft plan and some sleepers. Then throw away your plan. The most important thing during the draft is to ADAPT! Notice what positions are and are not being drafted. Can you hold off on drafting your Quarterback because everyone has already drafted one? Was there a run on tight ends? You better get one, even if it is a slightly over-priced player. Go with the flow of the draft and you will do better than sticking to a plan. If you are new to drafting and your league offers an auto-draft option, use it. This will give you a safely drafted team.

10. Finally, keep an eye on the player's bye weeks. But even more important, look at when your playoffs are and check the QB's you are drafting during those weeks. Make sure one of them has a good match up in each playoff week. It can mean the difference of a championship and second place. Also check the running backs, although they are generally more consistent, playing against a great defense probably means less TD's. It should just be another thing you weigh when you are drafting, not the only reason.

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